It's crunch time for Carlton this week.
The Blues simply have to beat arch-rivals Essendon at the MCG on Friday night if they are to be regarded as genuine contenders this season and not just an overrated bunch of pretenders.
Carlton has not made the finals since 2001 but has emerged from the darkest period in its history this season under coach Brett Ratten and with the split round now completed is sitting in seventh place with six wins and six losses.
Given the club has finished no higher than 11th since its last finals appearance and has finished either 15th or 16th in five of the past seven seasons - this appears to be a good performance.
But the only problem is the expectation on Carlton this season was that it was going to perform even better and those expectations were not just from the outside but inside the club as well.
Remember the club's membership slogan this year was 'They Know We're Coming' - a slogan that suggested a team capable of doing far more than just scraping into the top eight in 2009.
Given the leadership of Chris Judd, Nick Stevens and Heath Scotland and with recent No.1 draft picks Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy and ruckman Matthew Kreuzer all maturing nicely and having one of the game's best spearheads in Brendan Fevola and one of the best small forwards in Eddie Betts at their disposal, the Blues were considered at the very least certainties to make the eight in 2009.
But if they lose to Essendon on Friday night, the Blues win/loss record will not only fall into the negative but depending on other results they could also fall from the top eight with just nine rounds remaining.
Essendon is sitting in eighth spot, just percentage behind the Blues, and while Carlton is seen to have underachieved this season - the Bombers have definitely overachieved.
Yet if the Bombers beat Carlton, for what would be the fifth successive time on Friday night, Matthew Knights' young team would suddenly find itself above Carlton on the ladder.
Apart from perhaps the most one-eyed Essendon fan - and there are plenty of those in Victoria - few footy fans would have predicted the Bombers to finish ahead of Carlton this year.
The Blues, courtesy of their continual top draft picks in recent seasons following so many low finishes on the ladder, should be far further advanced in their re-building stage than