30/07/2009 5:20 PM
No match is more important than the next one, and the truism could not be more accurate when applied to the third Test starting at Edgbaston on Thursday night.
It is commonly accepted in Davis Cup tennis that the doubles rubber, also the third match, is pivotal to any tie.
The same applies in this series.
An England triumph will see the home side carry a 2-0 lead heading into the final two Tests. It would be just one draw away from again winning the Ashes on home soil.
A win for Australia will see the series all square but, seeing it already holds the urn, with the odds tipped slightly in its favour.
"It's the middle Test match and whatever happens here has a big effect on what happens in the last two Test matches," said England captain Andrew Strauss.
"There's not a lot of time to get things right from here on end."
A draw, however, seems the most likely result thanks to England's non-existent summer.
The scene at Edgbaston on match eve was more in keeping with a cold, wet afternoon at the football rather than indulging in a summer pastime.
Showers have been forecast for day one and heavy rain on day three.
There could be more ducks wading across puddles in the middle than appearing on the scoreboard.
The corresponding Test four years ago was remembered for its epic finish. The enduring image from this game could be of groundsmen scampering on and off the field with giant tarpaulins and umpires waving their light meters at the sky.
As always, much will be read into the slab of yellow turf in the middle.
There can be few more curious sights in sport than that of grown-up men inspecting the earth as if the harder they look the more answers it will spill out.
Ricky Ponting was infamously led astray by what he saw four years ago and made the fateful decision to bowl first.
Ponting was tight-lipped as to his plans this time, though should he win his first toss of the series he may well follow the advice Ian Chappell's grandfather Vic Richardson passed on.
"When you win the toss, nine times out of 10 you bat first. On the 10th occasion you think about putting the opposition in and then bat first anyway."
Should Ponting opt to bowl first, it would be indicative of the state of Australia's bowling stocks.
Teams that generally send opposition sides in are those which need the wicket at its liveliest to succeed.
Australia's attack could be one such example.
Mitchell Johnson's woes have been well documented, but nor do any of his team-mates appear capable of destroying England.
With the ball, Australia was most dangerous on a relatively tame fifth-day wicket in Cardiff where England's batsmen, worn out after more than 180 overs in the field, lost their bearings.
For a side battling to take 20 wickets to leave out its leading wicket-taker - Stuart Clark - from the last corresponding series is curious, particularly when that player is taking wickets and troubling batsmen.
But Australian selectors have in the past been handsomely rewarded for sticking with bowlers they have identified as future stars. They could shock everyone but themselves and stick with the same XI which was crunched at Lord's.
England will not. It has lost star batsman Kevin Pietersen to injury. His place has been filled by the maligned Ian Bell. To what standard nobody is confident given the amount of cautious murmurings among the locals.
Bell, who averages only 25 against Australia as opposed to 40 overall, does not frighten Ponting's men the slightest.
Shane Warne dubbed him the 'Shermanator' after a nerdy character from the movie American Pie. In that film, the Shermanator got the girl.
If life imitates art, the Shermanator could again bat above his average. He'll be helped by the absence of Warne and McGrath, who have claimed his wicket 10 times in 10 Tests.
If he is still Australia's bunny, England's middle order - more dour than divine - will be vulnerable. Moreso if Australia can prise out Strauss and Alastair Cook early, which it failed to do at Lord's.
Before any jousting can begin, the rain must stop and the covers removed. This could be a long Test for both players and fans.