VENUE & TIME: Subiaco, Sunday 5 July, 4:40 pm (AEST)
HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 21, Fremantle 12, Carlton 9
LAST TIME: Fremantle 13.10 (88) def Carlton 11.15 (81), Round 7, 2009 at Gold Coast Stadium.
WALKING WOUNDED: The Dockers have suffered two big outs going into this match, losing skipper Matthew Pavlich for at least a fortnight to a calf injury and Dean Solomon for a self-inflicted drinking injury. Although it hasn't been confirmed by the club, reports in the The West Australian say Solomon was internally suspended for one match after a drinking session in Melbourne last Sunday night that also claimed Essendon's Mark McVeigh. Solomon's ban is the second such internal suspension handed out in three weeks after forward Brett Peake also copped one match. Other than Solomon and Pavlich, Michael Johnson still has at least two weeks to go with an ankle injury while Roger Hayden's broken leg will force him to miss another month. Fremantle's playing stocks are particularly thin, however, although Daniel Gilmore, Clancee Pearce and Michael Walters will all be pushing for selection, with Tim Ruffles closing in on making his debut. For the Blues, Carlton coach Brett Ratten appears close to swinging the axe on at least four players after his side was categorically smashed by Essendon last weekend. Experienced campaigners Nick Stevens and Heath Scotland are in the gun, while doubts linger over Brendan Fevola after the Blues' spearhead had minor surgery on his fingers last Saturday. Paul Bower is also out for up to a month with a knee injury but could be readily replaced by Bret Thornton (hamstring) if he passes a fitness test.
FORM: Dreadful for both sides. Carlton was far from disgraced in a nine-point loss to St Kilda at the start of the split round but let all the good work go as they conceded 16 of 18 second-half goals against old enemy Essendon, eventually losing by 69 points. The Dockers are in a similar boat. Having pushed Geelong all the way in a 19-point loss to the premiership favourites, Fremantle wasn't in the hunt from the word go against Collingwood last week. Four goals in the first 10 minutes from the Magpies had Freo up against it early and, although the brave Dockers fought hard for two quarters without Pavlich, they were outgunned in the final term, losing by 84 points.
WHO'S HOT: One of the few Blues to hold their head up high on Friday night was youngster Aaron Joseph. Fresh from a Rising Star nomination for his shutdown job on Stephen Milne, Joseph followed it up with a great tagging performance on Andrew Lovett. Joseph kept the dangerous forward quiet in the first half and even when Essendon took control after half-time, the 19-year-old rookie listed player still took the points. For Fremantle, there's one player who never seems to have any trouble holding his head up, and that's Aaron Sandilands. The giant ruckman monstered Josh Fraser last weekend earning 25 possessions - 13 of them contested - five clearances, a whopping 44 hit-outs and a goal.
WE THINK: Those of you still coming down from the OzLotto $90 million draw could try your hand at picking a winner here, although you might have had a better chance with the Tatts. Both sides are coming off dreadful losses and will be desperate to atone. The Blues, of course, have the greater incentive as they look to consolidate their position in the eight after two losses on the trot. Expect a Chris Judd blitz as well after the Carlton skipper had a quiet match by his standards, especially against a Dockers' midfield missing Pavlich and Solomon this week. On a normal day, you'd say those two big losses to Freo's midfield would be a terminal blow, but Carlton rely so heavily on Fevola to score their goals. If Fev doesn't play or if he gets towelled up once again by Chris Tarrant, as he did in Round 7, then the Dockers may have the runners to expose Carlton on the counter-attack on Subi's long flanks. Going out on a limb here, Blues by 6 points but don't put your house on it.