Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
VENUE & TIME: MCG, Friday 18 September, 7.45pm
HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 146: St Kilda 73, Bulldogs 70, Drawn 3
LAST TIME: St Kilda 16.10 (106) d Bulldogs 9.7 (61) at Etihad Stadium, Round 17, 2009
IN FINALS St Kilda 0, Bulldogs 2
WALKING WOUNDED: It would not be a surprise if both these teams named unchanged line-ups. With no injury concerns - after Ryan Griffen proved his fitness for the Dogs at training this week after suffering a corked calf in last week's semi-final win over Brisbane - both these teams may opt for settled sides. The only players that are under selection scrutiny at St Kilda are Luke Ball and Robert Eddy with David Armitage, Sean Dempster and Jarryn Geary in contention for a recall. The Dogs' selection dilemma centres around whether to recall key position player Tom Williams, who resumed last week in the VFL having been out since Round 20 with a fractured foot. If the Dogs do take a punt on the injury-prone but versatile big man then expect Tim Callan to be the player to make way but if not the Dogs should name an unchanged side.
FORM: The Saints' re-asserted their authority and showed just why they finished top - with 20 wins and two losses - at the end of the home and away season as they easily disposed of Collingwood in the qualifying final to earn last week off. The Bulldogs rebounded superbly from their 14-point loss to Geelong in the qualifying final with an emphatic 51-point win over Brisbane in last week's knockout semi. But the Dogs have lost both their games against St Kilda this year - by 28 points and 45 points in Rounds 6 and 17 - although both those games were played at Etihad Stadium while this clash will be at the MCG.
WHO'S HOT: St Kilda captain Nick Riewoldt was duly rewarded for his stellar season on Monday night when he was named captain of the All-Australian team for the first time. The Saints' skipper has been sensational all season - leading the AFL both for marks and contested marks. And Riewoldt was at his inspirational best during the qualifying final win over Collingwood with five goals and is the man the Dogs must stop on Friday night. For the Bulldogs their reigning Brownlow Medalist Adam Cooney has hit top form at exactly the right time. After struggling early in the season following post-season knee surgery last October, Cooney has got better the longer the year has progressed and has had at least 25 possessions in each of his last seven matches while he was best afield against the Lions last week with 32 possessions and a goal.
WE THINK: The Bulldogs face more preliminary final heartbreak here. The Dogs are currently enduring the longest wait for a grand final berth of any AFL club having not made it to the last Saturday in September since 1961 while their one and only flag was way back in 1954. Since then the Dogs have lost five preliminary finals in 1985, 1992, 1997, 1998 and last year and are up against it again here against a St Kilda side that is aiming to reach its first grand final since 1997 and end its own premiership drought stretching back to 1966. The Saints have already beaten the Dogs easily in both meetings this year and while it will be harder for Ross Lyon's uncompromising team to put the clamps on the smaller but speedier Dogs on the wide open spaces of the MCG - compared to the much smaller Docklands' venue that usually hosts matches between the two clubs - equally the Saints' height advantage and better forward line structure compared to the Dogs should also prove more of an advantage at the MCG. While the Saints have the twin towers of Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke to aim at up forward, the Dogs badly lack key forwards and it's hard to see them kicking a winning score against the best defence we have seen in the AFL - at least statistically in terms of points conceded - in the modern era. The Dogs will be competitive for a while but expect the much fresher Saints to run away with it after half-time. St Kilda by 40 points.