25/11/2009 3:05 PM
The fate of former St Kilda captain Luke Ball is set to overshadow the big day for Australia's best young footballing talent when the AFL national draft is held in Melbourne on Thursday night.
While the national draft has traditionally been the day when the 16 clubs select the stars of the future with normally only a handful of recycled players getting a second chance every year, this year the build-up has been all about where Ball will end up.
With the build-up to the draft seemingly getting longer and more frenzied by the year, expect few surprises amongst the leading picks with Melbourne certain to name Victorian Tom Scully and South Australian Jack Trengove with its prized first two selections.
The only question is which teenager will be given the extra burden of being the No.1 pick with Scully - a 182cm midfielder who has been likened to Ben Cousins in terms of his non-stop running - expected to get the nod.
If the Demons only had the first pick there would have been no doubt that Scully would have been given the nod but with the luxury of the first two picks there has been speculation the club may decide to take Scully at two and fellow 18-year-old Trengove at one given Trengove has already played senior football with Sturt in the SANFL and therefore is more mature and better-placed to handle the extra pressure that comes with being the No.1 pick.
Richmond, which will have more selections than any other club having lost 13 players through retirements and delistings since its disastrous 2009 season, will have the next pick as it starts the massive task of re-building its list under new coach Damien Hardwick.
And that pick will almost certainly be used on 18-year-old Dustin Martin, a 187cm midfielder who was regarded as one of the best kicks in this year's TAC Cup under 18 competition in Victoria - the competition that usually supplies the bulk of draftees each year.
The pick of a bumper crop of Western Australia youngsters in 190cm Anthony Morabito is tipped to go to Fremantle - which usually favours home grown players - next at pick four before the draft becomes a bit of a raffle.
Other youngsters currently unknown but who will soon be household names that are expected to be taken in the first round of selections on Thursday night include Ben Cunnington, Gary Rohan, John Butcher, Kane Lucas and the fantastically named Max Gawn, who stands a whopping 208cm tall.
But it is where the much-respected Ball ends up that will dominate post-draft discussions around the water coolers at work on Friday morning.
At 25 and with 142 games to his credit, Ball should be at the peak of his career but strangely seemed to be unwanted by the Saints this season when he not only spent plenty of time on the bench in games but even spent time in the VFL.
A best-and-fairest winner in 2005 and one of the AFL's most respected and courageous players, Ball sought a move to Collingwood during the trade period but the Saints were not happy with the quality of players the Pies offered in return so no deal was made.
Now Ball, who has refused to even speak to other potential suitors in the lead-up to the draft, is hoping he will get to the Magpies in Thursday night's draft.
But the problem is the Pies - who gave up their first-round pick to secure former Sydney ruckman Darren Jolly - do not have a pick until selection 30 overall with numerous clubs threatening to take Ball before that.
Included in this list are Melbourne, which also has picks 11 and 18 as well as the first two, Essendon - which has selections 24 and 26 and like the Demons have the space in its salary cap to accommodate Ball's $1 million contract demand over the next two years - as well as Port Adelaide, which has pick 16 and Brisbane, which has pick 27.
However in a draft already weakened by the absence of the best 17-year-olds - who have been signed by the new Gold Coast club - clubs will be reluctant to give up valuable picks in the first and second round for a player that does not want to play for them.
That means that Ball could yet end up at the Magpies after all.
St Kilda coach Ross Lyon said on draft eve on Wednesday that the draft would tell whether his club's stand on Ball during trade week would be vindicated when the Saints refused to trade him once the Magpies did not offer either a first-round draft pick or quality players in return.
"What we are about to find out at the national draft is Luke Ball - where he is rated," Lyon said.
While the Saints now sit back and wait with interest to see what happens to their former skipper, the club could be involved in one of the fairytale moments of this year's draft if it is able to secure 18-year-old Nicholas Winmar.
Winmar is the second cousin of one of the Saints' greatest players in Nicky Winmar and has been linked with the Saints at pick 60.
However Lyon refused to guarantee anything when asked about Winmar on the eve of the draft.
"I met him at the draft camp, he is a lovely young man and I think they (the recruiters) are talking about him being (picked) in the mid 60s," Lyon said.
"He has got some assets but I don't think he is right up in the pecking order in the draft, as romantic as it would be."
The other major interest on Thursday night is how many other recycled players get a second chance with 52 recently-axed players nominating for the draft.
However only a handful are expected to win new homes with Hawthorn certain to claim an experienced ruckman with its last live pick at selection 69 given it only has two fit ruckmen on its list at present in Brent Renouf and Simon Taylor after the recent retirement of Robert Campbell and long-term knee injuries suffered by Tim Walsh and Max Bailey.
A host of axed ruckmen from other clubs have been linked to the Hawks including former Richmond pair Adam Pattison and Dean Putt, Cameron Cloke (Carlton), Chris Bryan (Collingwood) and the ex-Bulldog Wayde Skipper with Pattison tipped to get the nod.
Other players likely to be given a second chance include promising but injury-prone North Melbourne midfielder Jesse Smith, who could go to Brisbane, as well as former Bulldog and Kangaroo Sam Power, who could also go to the Lions where he would be re-united with his champion brother Luke.