The run home

03/08/2009 2:40 PM

Paul Gough

Sportal

After one of the closest rounds in AFL history with four games decided by 10 points or less, the race for both the top four and eighth spot has been thrown wide open.

The only certainty with four rounds remaining is that St Kilda and Geelong will finish in the top two but every other finishing position in the top eight remains up for grabs heading into the last month of the season.

Here is a look at the run home of the finals contenders.

St Kilda: RECORD 18-0, 164.3. TO PLAY: Hawthorn (Aurora), Essendon (ES), North Melbourne (ES), Melbourne (MCG). PREDICTED FINISH: Remained unbeaten despite suffering its biggest scare yet in beating lowly Sydney by just a point and now faces its toughest test in the run home against reigning premier Hawthorn in Tasmania this week. But a win over the Hawks and the Saints look certain to become only the second team and the first since Collingwood in 1929 to go through the home and away season unbeaten.

Geelong: 16-2, 134.1. TO PLAY: Carlton (MCG), Sydney (ANZ), Bulldogs (ES), Fremantle (SS). PREDICTED FINISH: For the second successive week the Cats scraped home by less than a kick and need to win only one more game to guarantee a top two finish.

Western Bulldogs: 12-6, 124.5. TO PLAY: West Coast (ES), Brisbane (Gabba), Geelong (ES), Collingwood (ES). PREDICTED FINISH: Remain third but are no certainties to finish in the top four and secure the double chance in the finals. They should win this week but could lose their last three and will need to beat at least one of Brisbane (away) and Collingwood (who beat them earlier this year) to stay in the top four.

Collingwood: 12-6, 117.7. TO PLAY: Adelaide (AAMI), Richmond (MCG), Sydney (MCG), Bulldogs (ES). PREDICTED FINISH: The Pies face a tough one this week but even if they lose they should still finish in the top four by beating both Sydney and Richmond and will probably finish third - and face Geelong in the first week of the finals - if they beat the Bulldogs in Round 22.

Adelaide: 11-7, 111. TO PLAY: Collingwood (AAMI), Hawthorn (MCG), West Coast (AAMI), Carlton (ES). PREDICTED FINISH: Even a win over fourth-placed Collingwood this week may not be enough to secure a top four finish given they still have to play both Hawthorn and Carlton

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Comments

Posted by 40 Degrees S at

03/08/2009 04:25 PM

In the battle for 8th spot, it is possible that PtA, Ess & Haw might finish 10-12 each, or two of them with 10-11-1; Carlton could also finish less than 11-11. (Only two Final 8 precedents: 1995 BrB 10-12; 1997 BrL 10-11-1; several on 11-11.) Should that qualify a team for a Final? What if to play Finals, a team had to finish at least 11-11? Yes, there would be logistical problems, but hey, this is the 21st C, not the Middle Ages.

Posted by Power09 at

03/08/2009 06:18 PM

Port will stitch up 8th spot and in an unlikely scenario if results go their way and they keep winning they can finish 6th and get a home final but i think 7th is the highest they will finish. Maybe We'll have Showdown 28 XXVIII earlier than expected?

Posted by Drop Bear at

03/08/2009 08:28 PM

If the Pies beat Adelaide this week we should hit the finals with a heap of momentum which will see us get over the Cats or the Saints who I sense are starting to hit the wall after being the comps front runners all year.

Posted by whiteface at

05/08/2009 02:09 PM

haha - collingwood supporters are demented

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Every Monday Bruce Eva, Peter 'Crackers' Keenan and Paul Gough will look back over the round that's been and look forward to everything that's coming up. Click here for the latest episode.