There are three distinct groups emerging in the AFL at the halfway mark of the 2008 season and the biggest surprise is what particular grouping Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Carlton and Richmond find themselves in.
The three groups are:
*the top seven teams - Hawthorn, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane Lions and Collingwood.
*the middle three - North Melbourne, St Kilda and Carlton.
*and the bottom six - Port Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast, Essendon, Fremantle and Melbourne.
The top seven (who all won again in round 11) are all certain finalists and all genuine premiership contenders and their battle throughout the second half of the season - firstly for the prized top four positions and then the flag should make for a sensational climax to the season.
The middle group is fighting it out to finish eighth and claim the last place in the September action.
And then there is the bottom six - the also-rans who have no chance of appearing in the finals action this year.
While the Bulldogs and Brisbane's climb into the top echelon this year deserves much praise, it is the composition of the last two groupings that has caused the biggest surprise in the first half of the season.
Just how St Kilda still does not find itself in the top group is an indictment on the club's progress under coach Ross Lyon and it seems increasingly obvious that just about everyone in football has overestimated the strength of the Saints' list.
As this column has previously noted it appears the failed 2004 and 2005 preliminary final appearances represented the Saints' best chance of that long-awaited second flag and the Saints now have to re-build and stop topping up their list with recyclables from other clubs.
There is even a question mark now surrounding the Saints' supposed elite players - particularly key forwards Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke given the club's continued failure to kick a winning score having only surpassed 100 points in a game on four occasions this season.
Just as damning is Port Adelaide's slide into the bottom group - as emphasised by Sunday's surrender to Carlton.
Again increasingly it looks as if the record 119 point margin in last year's grand final was a true indication of the gap between Port Adelaide and a Geelong side which goes from strength to strength.
Port, which has won just four from 11 this season, now faces the unlikely task of winning eight of its last 11 just to finish in eighth spot and it's hard to see where that kind of improvement will come from.
And given they face Geelong at Geelong next week, Port's season is likely to be effectively over by round 12 - as last year's grand final appearance begins to look more of a miracle by the week.
But at least Port - unlike St Kilda - has some talented youngsters at its disposal in Steven Salopek, Robbie Gray, Danyle Pearce and Justin Westhoff and is more advanced than building its next top side than a Saints' side which is yet to realise its time as a premiership contender has passed.
Then we come to Carlton and Richmond and Tigers' coach Terry Wallace should be concerned that it is the Blues and not the Tigers that have pushed their way out of the bottom group and into the middle tier in 2008.
The only two teams not to play in the finals since 2001 - the Blues have finished in the bottom two in five of the past six years but in their first full year under Brett Ratten suddenly find themselves just half a game outside the top eight.
And as Sunday's thrilling come-from-behind win against Port showed, the Blues have regained their spirit that disappeared in the Denis Pagan days and in Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Jarrad Waite and Marc Murphy have players that future teams can be built around.
Richmond, in stark contrast, continues on the road to nowhere in what is now Wallace's fourth year in charge.
For the umpteenth time, long-suffering Tigers fans are again watching the promise of long-overdue improvement disappear with the club now having just one win in the past seven matches as they look set to miss the finals for an incredible 24th time in the past 26 seasons - easily the worst record of any club in that time.
And unlike Carlton there appears no plan for the future with Wallace caught between looking for short-term improvement by playing experienced players with limited futures such as Joel Bowden, Greg Tivendale or Kayne Pettifer or copping more short-term pain but at least getting valuable experience into young players such as Jack Riewoldt, Mitch Morton and Cleve Hughes.
Indeed if the Tigers fail to beat bottom side Melbourne next week, Wallace could find his tenure at Punt Road again coming under heavy scrutiny.