07/09/2009 9:44 AM
Ricky Ponting's back and England's resting two senior players. It's pointing to another win for Australia in the fourth one-day international at Lord's on Saturday night.
Victory will ensure Australia wraps up the best-of-seven series after just four matches and leaves open the prospect of a whitewash.
Australia, in theory, will be strengthened by Ponting's return though Cameron White - with scores of 53, 42 and 105 - has made every post a winner.
England will be without its premier paceman James Anderson and experienced batsman Paul Collingwood, who have both been rested.
Ashes hero Stuart Broad and inexperienced opener Joe Denly are available after injury and likely to be rushed back into the Poms' XI.
Australia thoroughly deserves to be 3-0 up but, as Ponting pointed out, it would be wrong to suggest it has been a cakewalk.
The first game went down to the wire and England was in positions to win at Lord's and the Rose Bowl only to lose its nerve.
Misplaced during the Ashes, Australia has rediscovered its ability to win the big moments - with bat and ball - in the one-dayers.
"One-day cricket is a bit like that, the team that just grabs an opportunity when it comes up quite often goes on and wins games," Ponting said. "We've done that well in the first three games."
The bowlers, in particular, have answered their captain's call.
Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson have struck while the ball is new and during the middle overs when the field spreads.
Contrast the express pace of Lee and Johnson against the military medium of Luke Wright and Tim Bresnan, and Collingwood's slow cutters and one gets an idea of how much more pressure England's batsmen face compared to Australia's.
The contributions of 50-over specialist Nathan Bracken, particularly at the death, and spinner Nathan Hauritz on sluggish wickets cannot be understated either.
Bracken's variety and Hauritz's constantly improving spin is an excellent foil to Lee and Johnson's missiles.
But it's with the bat where the difference between the two teams has been most pronounced.
England cannot find a player whom it can build its innings around and its middle order dearly misses Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff.
Whether it's White, Michael Clarke or Callum Ferguson, Australia has found someone to lift it out of any trouble.
The visitors have hit five 50s and, in White, have the only centurion of the series whereas England's line-up has posted just two half-centuries.
Ponting's return clouds the selection picture given how well White has performed in his absence.
As hard as it may be to stomach, White could be dropped after his stellar recent form.
Clarke and Ferguson are Australia's two leading ODI run-scorers in 2009 and Michael Hussey averages 42 this year.
James Hopes, who has missed just two games since the 2007 World Cup, would also be hard to dump as he gives Ponting an extra bowling option and batting depth.
It's a happy dilemma for selectors and whatever rein they pull will prove the right one unless England's batsmen show some spine.