03/08/2009 3:55 PM
The mysteries of the Duke ball could inflict more damage on Australia's Ashes campaign as the third Test builds to its climax at Edgbaston on Monday night.
Australia's batsmen will walk out onto England's most hostile Test venue knowing the ball is entering its most treacherous phase of deterioration.
Of the 20 wickets to have fallen in this match, 10 have come while the ball is between 30 and 60 overs old in each innings at an average of one every six overs.
As a comparison, the 132 overs bowled outside this period yielded 12 wickets (one in 11 overs) suggesting the first session of play could well decide Australia's fate.
Australia will resume on the final day on 2-88, still trailing by 25, and can ill afford a repeat of the stunning collapse on the second day when it lost 7-77 in 24 overs.
James Anderson was the destroyer in that instance and threatens to again be a menace for Australia now that the ball has lost some of its initial shine.
"I think we've found so far in the Test once the lacquer's gone off the ball it starts swinging again," said England all-rounder Andrew Flintoff.
"(Ben) Hilfenhaus bowled beautifully, he got it to swing and we saw first innings Jimmy Anderson did as well."
"And we saw towards the end of tonight the ball started to do a bit more than probably it did first up."
"I'm acting like getting the shine off the ball for the swing bowlers. Hopefully tomorrow morning some overcast conditions will be nice, the ball nipping around and put some pressure on."
Hilfenhaus, again Australia's best bowler with four wickets, could offer no explanation for the statistical anomaly.
"We have found that (it starts swinging after 30 overs) and to be honest we don't know the answer," he said.
"Back in Australia the Kookaburra swings, the new ball swings and then it dies out. Here it seems to get better as it gets older, I'm not sure why but that's just the way it is."