08/09/2008 5:03 PM
There may be six teams still remaining in the AFL finals series but as far as the bookmakers are concerned the 2008 premiership battle is only a two horse race.
The emphatic qualifying final victories by minor premier Geelong and second-placed Hawthorn over fourth-placed St Kilda and the third-placed Western Bulldogs respectively this weekend has all but stifled grand final betting.
Victoria's TAB Sportsbet now has the Geelong-Hawthorn grand final quinella at the prohibitive odds of $1.25 while Betfair is only quoting the slightly more generous odds of $1.40.
The only other combination under double figure odds with TAB Sportsbet is Geelong and Collingwood at $7, although the Magpies have to first beat St Kilda in this week's semi-final before taking on the Hawks in the preliminary final.
Victoria TAB Sportsbet's Gary Davies told Sportal that the Cats-Hawks grand final combination had been popular with punters all season but was now considered a virtual certainty.
"Even during pre-season when we first put up the market it was the second favoured combination at $11 behind Geelong and St Kilda at $8," he said.
"By round 16 it (the odds on a Geelong-Hawthorn grand final) was down to $3.30 then $2.40 after round 18, $2.10 after round 20, $1.80 after round 22 and now $1.25."
The fact the Cats and Hawks beat the other two teams that finished in the top four by nearly ten goals on the weekend emphasised their dominance over the rest of the competition but also ensured they cannot meet until the grand final - with both earning the week off and direct passage to separate preliminary finals by winning in week one.
The dominance of the Cats and Hawks is also reflected in premiership betting with TAB Sportsbet having the Cats odds-on favourites at $1.28 to win back-to-back flags for the first time since 1952 while the Hawks are at $3.75 with Collingwood the best of the rest at $21 while Betfair has the Cats at $1.41, the Hawks at $4.60 with Collingwood $30 and the rest all at $50 or above.
Davies said punters see this weekend's semi-final match-ups between the Bulldogs and Sydney at the MCG on Friday night and St Kilda and Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday night as very much consolation prizes - with the winners to start rank outsiders against the Cats and the Hawks in the preliminary finals the following week.
And the early money is for the Bulldogs and the Pies with the Dogs attracting about 90 percent of the wagers so far with TAB Sportsbet while the Pies have been even more heavily backed to beat the Saints on Saturday night.