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Top four set to take shape

01/07/2008 4:47 PM

There might only be two AFL matches this weekend in what is the second half of the split round but it could still prove to be one of the most significant weekends of the 2008 season.

In fact, it could be the one which all but settles which teams will finish in the top four this season, bringing with it the double chance and premiership favouritism come September.

Already, three places are all but settled with Geelong, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn looking top-four certainties while Sydney is in pole position to grab the other spot with Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood the only realistic challengers.

But with the Swans hosting Collingwood and reigning premier Geelong travelling to fifth-placed Adelaide in the only two AFL games this weekend - a Swans-Cats double this weekend would all but close the door on the few remaining hopefuls challenging for a top-four finish.

Indeed, if the Swans beat the Magpies at ANZ Stadium and the Cats beat the Crows in Adelaide there will be a massive 10-point gap between the fourth-placed Swans and their nearest challengers.

Even Collingwood assistant coach Brad Scott, whose seventh-placed team might become more concerned about those teams behind it rather than in front of it should it lose to the Swans on Saturday night, concedes that with the top three having lost just four games between them so far this season that fourth spot is about the best the Pies can hope for.

And with the Pies meeting the Swans this week followed by the fifth-placed Crows in Melbourne the following week, the club faces a crunch fortnight.

"The top three are, barring some sort of real form slump, pretty much locked in so we have got a pretty important couple of games coming up against sides that we are competing with for that (last) spot in the top four," Scott said.

The Pies have won their past four games against the Swans - including last year's Elimination Final at the MCG as well as their past two meetings at Sydney's ANZ Stadium - but this time they come up against a side that has won their past six matches, the Swans' equal-best run under coach Paul Roos.

And the Swans are desperate for revenge for the three losses they suffered at the hands of the Magpies last year.

"They've obviously beaten us three times last year which is something that doesn't sit happily with a lot of the players," Sydney defender Tadhg Kennelly said this week.

Another fascinating aspect of Saturday night's game is the Pies will be without the injured Anthony Rocca, who booted six goals in that Elimination Final victory over Sydney last year, while the Swans will be without dual Brownlow Medallist Adam Goodes - for the first time this decade.

Certainly Scott, and indeed the other top-four hopefuls such as Brisbane and Adelaide, is hoping the Swans will be vulnerable without their playmaker.

"It is the first time Paul Roos has coached without him and the first time he hasn't played in eight-and-a-half years so they are obviously a different side with a player of his quality out," Scott said.

But if the Swans can down the Pies without Goodes this weekend and Geelong - which is coming off a record 135-point hammering of West Coast in Perth and has won 31 of its past 33 matches - beats the Crows then the realistic number of premiership chances will have effectively been whittled down to just four clubs by the end of the split round.

 
Photograph Copyright : Getty Images
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