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Finals race blown wide open

13/07/2008 7:22 PM

Adelaide's worst losing run under Neil Craig and the Brisbane Lions' inability to win away from the Gabba has blown the AFL finals race wide open.

And continuing the dramatic turnaround in favour of the Victorian clubs generally this season - there is no shortage of Melbourne-based clubs outside the eight waiting to make the most of the Lions and Crows' unexpected slide.

Indeed if Brisbane and Adelaide's slide continues and considering Port Adelaide, West Coast and Fremantle are already out of finals contention, there could be an incredible seven Victorian teams in the finals in 2008.

That has not happened since 2000 and comes just two years after non-Victorian clubs filled the top four places in 2006 and just five years after all six non-Victorian teams made the finals in 2003.

Just a couple of weeks ago the top seven teams - including Brisbane and Adelaide - appeared finals certainties and the only interest appeared to be on the battle for eighth place between St Kilda and Carlton.

But right now the eighth-placed Saints - who are now level on wins with the sixth-placed Crows and seventh-placed Lions - appear far more likely to make the finals than that pair.

While the Crows comes to grips with the loss of their two leading goalkickers this season in Brett Burton and Jason Porplyzia to serious injuries and the Lions continue to struggle away from the Gabba - the Saints get to play three of the bottom four teams in Fremantle, West Coast and Port Adelaide in the run home to the finals.

Three wins there and the Saints will only need to win one of their other four remaining games - including clashes with Essendon and the Crows (in Melbourne in round 21) to book their first finals berth since 2006.

In contrast the Crows - who have now lost four in a row for the first time since the first four rounds of 2004 (prior to Craig becoming coach later that season) - not only face a tough run home but will be without Burton for the rest of the season after he suffered a seirous knee injury against Collingwood on Saturday while Porplyzia is likely to miss most of the remaining seven home and away games after dislocating his shoulder.

The Crows still need four more wins to secure their finals berth and despite having four of their last seven games at home - those matches are against the second-placed Bulldogs as well as games against teams just outside the eight in Carlton and Richmond plus the second 'showdown' this year against arch-enemies Port Adelaide this week.

And their three remaining away games are all difficult - against Sydney, the revitalised Essendon and St Kilda.

Indeed it is the Bombers, along with Carlton, the Kangaroos and Richmond, who are poised to take advantage of any further slip-ups by the Lions and the Crows.

The Lions problem is they simply can't win away from the Gabba with the club now having lost its past three matches in Victoria while they have won only two of seven on the road all year, while winning six of eight at home.

And with Leigh Matthews' team - like Adelaide and St Kilda - still needing four wins to secure a finals berth, they will be looking to secure their first taste of September action since

 
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