25/08/2008 6:08 PM
Hawthorn must seize its opportunity on Saturday.
It would be easy to write off the Hawks' grand final chances on the basis they are coming up against a Geelong side that has won 42 of its past 44 matches and is on the verge of becoming one of the greatest sides in league history.
In contrast the Hawks are a young, up-and-coming side appearing in their first grand final since 1991 and surely Alastair Clarkson's team will win the flag next year - as the Cats begin to decline - if they lose on Saturday.
Or so the theory goes.
But recent AFL history is littered with similar teams that reached grand finals in what appeared the early stages of their development, lost and were expected to go on and lift the cup the following year only to fall into oblivion.
While West Coast used its heartbreaking 2005 grand final loss to Sydney as the springboard to beat the Swans the following year, that has been more the exception than the rule in recent AFL history.
Indeed Geelong fans know all about unfulfilled destiny after seeing their team of stars lose four grand finals in seven seasons in 1989, 1992, 1994 and 1995 before having to wait for an entirely new team to finally end the club's 44-year premiership drought in 2007.
St Kilda in 1997, Melbourne in 2000, Collingwood in 2002 and 2003 and Port Adelaide last year are just four clubs that spring to mind that made grand finals, didn't take their opportunities and then faded into obscurity in recent times.
Again it would be easy to say the Cats of 2008 - they became only the second team after Essendon in 2000 to win 21 of 22 home-and-away games and the Bombers of that year won the flag in a cakewalk - are unbeatable and the Hawks' turn at premiership glory will come soon, even if they lose on Saturday.
But while there is no doubt the Cats of 2008 are as good as any of the great premiership teams in modern history - such as Hawthorn of 1988-89, Carlton of 1995, Essendon of 2000 and Brisbane from 2001-03 - the Hawks are a far stronger challenger than any of those teams (apart from Brisbane in 2001 against Essendon) had to contend with.
Remember, the Hawks have won 19 of 24 games this season, which in most years would have them raging premiership favourites, possess the AFL's Coleman Medallist this season and arguably the AFL's No.1 player these days in Lance 'Buddy' Franklin, a talented midfield more than capable of matching Geelong's fantastic on-ball unit as well as the mental and physical toughness to match the league's hardest team.
And while the Hawks only have one player - former Port Adelaide star Stuart Dew - with grand final experience, the Cats team has 18 of the 22 that beat Port Adelaide by a record 119-point margin in last year's premiership decider. The Hawks are not light on for experience overall with former skipper Shane Crawford alone having played over 300 games.
For 34-year-old Crawford, the only man in the Hawks' top 17 in terms of games played that has not won a premiership, this could be his last chance at the flag that has long eluded him.
But it would be a mistake to think the rest of the Hawks