Those looking to cheer on New South Wales have precious little to cling to. They point to the Blues' exceptional record at ANZ Stadium (11 wins and a draw from 13 matches played at the Homebush venue), the genius of coach Craig Bellamy and even the supposed kind-hearted football gods, who will smile kindly on Danny Buderus in his final Origin appearance.
Unfortunately for all those south of the Tweed, home-ground advantage, the most highly-regarded coach in the game and the potential for a fairytale finale for an Origin legend won't be nearly enough.
The reasons are plentiful with the most important being the class of the Queensland outfit.
Throughout the history of Origin, there have been few teams that have had the sheer skill and brilliance that the 2008 Queensland team has. The entire backline is chock full of firepower, the forward pack is hardworking and intelligent and the bench is perfectly constructed for impact.
Scott Prince shocked many in Game 2 with a stellar performance that ensured the New South Wales defence was spread thin thanks to his presence. With the likes of Petero Civoniceva (173 metres from 17 runs) and Price (101 metres from 15 runs) laying a tremendous platform and Cameron Smith (111 touches) ensuring the ball went in the right direction, Prince and halves partner Johnathan Thurston had plenty of time and space to set the exciting Queensland backline alight.
With referees boss Robert Finch promising that the ruck will be refereed in a similar manner to Origin II by referee Tony Archer, the Blues can expect more of the same.
Queensland has the forwards to get a roll on and the backline to convert that momentum into points. Penalties will merely exacerbate this problem for the Blues.
Injury has further cruelled the hopes of New South Wales. The Blues will field a fresh halves combination with debutant Mitchell Pearce and the recalled Braith Anasta after incumbent pair Greg Bird and Peter Wallace succumbed to knee and groin injuries respectively. Raiders centre Joel Monaghan will also debut in place of the inimitable Mark Gasnier.
Mitchell Pearce was probably the right decision to play halfback with Anasta drafted in to replace Greg Bird as they have a combination that has worked well all season for the Roosters.
The fact remains, however, that Pearce is young and has no big-game experience with only 30 Roosters caps to his name.
Also of concern is the tandem's reliance on kicks. The Roosters lead the NRL in tries scored from kicks and while their kicking game has proved effective at club level, it would be folly to solely rely on cross field bombs and dinky grubbers to beat the likes of Israel Folau, Karmichael Hunt and Darius Boyd.
The selection of Joel Monaghan may also prove costly for the Blues. Monaghan is a fine attacking player and a constant try-scoring threat but his defence continues to be a concern.
He is prone to making poor decisions in defence and of all centres that have played 10-plus games this season, Monaghan ranks fifth in missed tackles.
He is scheduled to mark Greg Inglis, who has the ability to beat even the best defensive centres. This is a bad match-up for the Blues. Craig Bellamy may choose to switch Monaghan to the left with Matt Cooper marking Inglis on the right but that creates a further headache of having two centres playing away from their natural side.
Queensland can be bet with total confidence in the match odds markets as well as giving away 4.5 points. Bettors looking for added value can bet Queensland in the half-time/full-time double market as well as taking Queensland to win by over 12½ points in the winning margin market.