The Blues look overs at home
Upon analysing game 2 of this year’s Origin series, it’s difficult to say whether Queensland was just too brilliant, New South Wales simply abysmal, or whether other things like refereeing played a part. The 30-0 scoreline cannot be ignored however, and despite their wonderful home record, the Blues have their backs against the wall in trying to turn the tables…
New South Wales v Queensland
State of Origin III | ANZ Stadium, Sydney
July 2nd 2008, 8pm AEST | Live on Nine
THE BETTING
Origin punters are nothing if not consistent, mirroring pre-match betting from games 1 and 2 by installing the Maroons solid 1.69 favourites over the Blues, who layers presently deem a 2.42 chance at best. Far happier to trade around a Queensland result, punters have bet less than a third of all money invested around NSW. They appear an unknown quantity; perhaps a sleeping giant?
THE TEAMS
Replacement Blues halves Braith Anasta and teen debutant Mitchell Pearce have been a sensation for the Chooks this year, but Origin is a different proposition. The Maroons showed in game 2 though, the difference in having a proven playmaker pairing, so perhaps NSW can take heart from that. The Cockroaches have also had to find a replacement for game 1 star Mark Gasnier to take on game 2 hero Greg Inglis, which is significant. The Canetoads go in unchanged; a great confidence-booster.
THE FORM
The previous wins of either team have been dominant, although it’s difficult to disagree that Queensland’s was particularly so last time out. Spoiled for backline talent, Mal Meninga’s mob will be hoping to replicate their Lang Park whitewash. This is the main reason for their firm support with punters, although NSW’s near-perfect form at home should certainly not be ignored.
THE VENUE
ANZ Stadium is an enigma by anyone’s standards. Darren Lockyer said this week that Queensland “have an issue” playing at the arena. You don’t say, Locky; they’ve won once in 12 attempts there. Pim Verbeek reckons its surface is simply “not good enough”. Countless Socceroo, AFL and NRL players would concur by virtue of needing to remember to bring their ice skates to Homebush. NSW played the conditions at ANZ best in game 1, rushing the Queensland line and preventing them from playing their expansive game which was so fruitful in Brisbane. When it comes to the venue, the Blues have a distinct advantage.
THE VERDICT
There’s little doubt that Queensland’s outside backs – Inglis, Folau, Slater, Hunt and Co. – have the firepower to score a winning total as they did in Brisbane. However, the typically greasy conditions of ANZ Stadium provide NSW with a platform their forward strength can drive home. With their grand track record in mind, the Blues provide wonderful head-to-head value at 2.42, or with a 4.5 point head start at 1.90. The Maroons deserve favouritism, but we won’t see a repeat of Brisbane; if you like the visitors, the 3.15 available on a 1-12 point victory in the winning margin market provides outstanding value.