Bren O'Brien and Paul Gough
Socceroos coach Pim Verbeek has less than 12 months to whittle down what he says are 35 possibles for the World Cup in South Africa down to his final 23. Sportal's Bren O'Brien and Paul Gough look at the certainties, the probables, the possibles and the unlikely as they give their predictions on what the squad will be.
There are likely to be eight changes from the squad which Australia took to Germany, with four players having retired from international football, and the other four very unlikely. Last time Australia took three goalkeepers, eight defenders, eight midfielders and four forwards. The following assumes Verbeek will select along the same lines.
Goalkeepers:
Numbers: Three
Certainties: Mark Schwarzer
Probables: Michael Petkovic
Possibles: Adam Federici, Brad Jones, Ante Covic
Unlikely: Nathan Coe, Eugene Galekovic, Michael Theoklitos
Summary: Mark Schwarzer, barring injury or a horrendous drop in form, will be Australia's custodian in South Africa 2010. Coming off his best season ever in the English Premier League and having kept a clean sheet in all but one of the final round of qualification matches, there is unlikely to be a repeat of 2006 for Schwarzer, when Zelkjo Kalac was preferred for the match against Croatia, with near disastrous consequences.
Petkovic has been a firm understudy for much of the campaign to date and is the clear first-choice at Sivasspor, which finished second in the Turkish league this year. The battle for the third spot will be very interesting with Adam Federici in pole position with Reading about to give him regular first-team football in the English championship. Brad Jones will also be in the championship this year with Middlesbrough, but has not performed well when given his chance in the Socceroos shirt, while Ante Covic has the runs on the board having been part of the World Cup squad last time around. His decision to move back to Sweden could see him catapulted back into contention.
Former Melbourne Victory stopper Michael Theoklitos could be the bolter if he secures a first-team spot at a decent European club and performs well this season, while Eugene Galekovic is highly-regarded by Verbeek as the A-League best keeper. Nathan Coe will need to perform well for Swedish side Orgryte IS to warrant consideration.
Defenders:
Numbers: Eight
Certainties: Lucas Neill, Luke Wilkshire, Scott Chipperfield
Probables: Craig Moore, Chris Coyne, Michael Beauchamp, David Carney
Possibles: Mark Milligan, Jade North, Matthew Spiranovic
Unlikely: Shane Stefanutto, Rhys Williams, Adrian Madaschi, Scott Jamieson, Rody Vargas
Summary: Australia's defensive selection will depend on whether Craig Moore, who will be 34 when the Cup starts, is fit and able to get enough game time ahead of the tournament. In the past 18 months, Moore has retired from international football, made a comeback, had a cancer scare and then was injured and left out of the squad for the June qualifiers. Without Moore, Australia is missing a centre back with one of Chris Coyne, Michael Beauchamp or Jade North to get the nod. Luke Wilkshire and Scott Chipperfield will be the first-choice full backs, with David Carney likely to be Chipperfield's back up on the left. Mark Milligan, who can play central or at full back, is probably the best other option, but a full season in the Bundesliga could rapidly improve Matthew Spiranovic's chances.
Recent call-ups Shane Stefanutto, Rhys Williams and Adrian Madaschi will struggle to press their claims outside of the major leagues, while the two A-Leaguers, Rody Vargas and Scott Jamieson, would have to have outstanding seasons.
Midfielders:
Numbers: Eight
Certainties: Brett Emerton, Vince Grella, Jason Culina, Mark Bresciano, Tim Cahill
Probables: Mile Sterjovski, Carl Valeri
Possibles: Brett Holman, Richard Garcia, Nicky Carle, Mile Jedinak, Jacob Burns
Unlikely: Dario Vidosic, James Holland, James Troisi, Tom Pondeljak, Billy Celeski, Paul Reid
Summary: Australia's starting midfield is pretty much set in stone, providing Brett Emerton is fit, with Vince Grella and Jason Culina to remain as screening midfielders, and Emerton, Tim Cahill, and Mark Bresciano to battle for the other two spots (if you consider Harry Kewell as a forward).
Mile Sterjovski makes sense as a back-up on the right side of midfield, while Carl Valeri is a logical back-up for Culina/Grella. The other spot should be between Richard Garcia, Brett Holman and Nicky Carle, all attacking midfielders, but Verbeek could opt for defensive cover and plump for either Mile Jedinak or Jacob Burns.
Young talents Dario Vidosic, James Holland and James Troisi could take substantial leaps forward this season with their clubs, catapulting them into the possibles. The A-League's best Australian midfielders from last season would need to improve remarkably to be considered, with Billy Celeski and Paul Reid the best candidates.
Forwards:
Numbers: Four
Certainties: Josh Kennedy, Harry Kewell, Scott McDonald
Probables: Bruce Djite
Possibles: Mark Viduka
Unlikely: Mark Bridge, Danny Allsopp, Archie Thompson, Nathan Burns, Joel Griffiths, Matt Simon, John Aloisi, Nikita Rukavystya
Summary: Probably the area with the least depth of any of them, but if Verbeek persists with playing one central striker, than as long as Josh Kennedy stays fit, Australia should be fine. The concern is if Kennedy gets enough first-team football this year at a new club. Harry Kewell is a logical pick, while Scott McDonald's deluge of goals at club level will surely spill over to the international stage at some time.
Bruce Djite, who will have another season in Turkey under his belt, is the logical back-up, but should Mark Viduka make himself available again, then Verbeek would be foolish not to pick him. The back-up striking options aren't strong with the A-League's best a very even bunch. Archie Thompson is probably the pick of them, and was in the 2006 squad. Nathan Burns or Nikita Rukavystya could have big seasons in Europe and propel themselves into contention. John Aloisi, a Socceroos legend, could put himself back on the radar if he scores a hatful of goals for Sydney FC this year.
Bren O'Brien's Predicted Squad:
Goalkeepers: Mark Schwarzer, Michael Petkovic, Adam Federici
Defenders: Lucas Neill, Luke Wilkshire, Scott Chipperfield, Craig Moore, Michael Beauchamp, David Carney, Mark Milligan, Chris Coyne
Midfielders: Brett Emerton, Vince Grella, Jason Culina, Mark Bresciano, Tim Cahill, Mile Sterjovski, Carl Valeri, Richard Garcia
Forwards: Harry Kewell, Josh Kennedy, Scott McDonald, Bruce Djite
Paul Gough's Predicted Squad:
Goalkeepers: Mark Schwarzer, Michael Petkovic, Adam Federici
Defenders: Lucas Neill, Luke Wilkshire, Scott Chipperfield, Craig Moore, Jade North, David Carney, Mark Milligan, Chris Coyne
Midfielders: Brett Emerton, Vince Grella, Jason Culina, Mark Bresciano, Tim Cahill, Mile Sterjovski, Carl Valeri, Nick Carle
Forwards: Harry Kewell, Josh Kennedy, Scott McDonald, Bruce Djite