VENUE & TIME: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, Sunday November 29, 04.15 AEDT.
HEAD TO HEAD: Played 28 – Australia 17, Wales 10, Drawn 1.
LAST TIME: November 29, 2008 (Cardiff) – Wales 21-18 Wallabies.
WALKING WOUNDED: Wales coach Warren Gatland has made one unforced change to the starting line-up that outmuscled Argentina last Sunday, with 71-Test veteran Dwayne Peel given the nod at half-back at the expense of Gareth Cooper who drops out of the match-day 22. For the Wallabies, Benn Robinson (AC joint), Will Genia (knee) and Wycliff Palu (neck) have all recovered from knocks suffered in the shock loss to Scotland. The tourists are further boosted by the return of outside-centre Digby Ioane from a shoulder injury, while openside flanker David Pocock is back on deck after being rested against the Scots. Lock Dean Mumm, who captained the Wallabies to a 31-3 win over Cardiff on Wednesday, is the only other change to the starting side forcing Mark Chisholm to the bench.
FORM: Gatland's men should have ended their winless streak against the All Blacks earlier this month, eventually going down 19-12 despite being arguably the better side on the day. Their narrow escape against Samoa was not so impressive but they proved their credentials as a team on the rise with an emphatic 33-16 victory over the formidable Pumas on Sunday. The Wallabies, who now boast a lowly 51.9 percent winning ratio from 27 Tests under besieged coach Robbie Deans, hit rock bottom against Scotland. The tourists totally dominated the Scots in every facet - with the exception of the lineout - but their lack of composure and inability to complete basic skills under pressure turned an easy victory into their worst nightmare.
WHO'S HOT: Shane Williams - the reigning IRB International Player of the Year - emerged from his minor form slump against the Pumas, scoring two of his side's three tries in a scintillating display. Five-eighth Stephen Jones also played a starring role, finishing with a 17-point haul. For the Wallabies, No.8 Wycliff Palu played arguably his best game in a Wallabies jumper against Scotland before he was stretchered from the field with pinched nerves in his neck. Full-back Adam Ashley-Cooper handled the treacherous conditions brilliantly and half-back Will Genia again proved he is already world class - but everyone else was below their best.
WE THINK: It can't get any worse - can it? Win or lose the Wallabies' Spring Tour will be considered a failure, but a victory will make the plane ride home less daunting. It won't be easy for Deans' men against a Wales side that has become accustomed to wearing the underdogs' tag. But with most bookmakers installing the hosts as slight favourites, can Gatland's men handle the pressure of favouritism? We think not. Wallabies by five.
TEAMS:
Wales: 15. James Hook, 14. Leigh Halfpenny, 13. Jamie Roberts, 12. Jonathan Davies, 11. Shane Williams, 10. Stephen Jones, 9. Dwayne Peel, 8. Ryan Jones (c), 7. Martyn Williams, 6. Andy Powell, 5. Luke Charteris, 4. Alun-Wyn Jones, 3. Paul James, 2. Matthew Rees, 1. Gethin Jenkins.
Reserves: 16. Huw Bennett, 17. Duncan Jones, 18. Jonathan Thomas, 19. Dan Lydiate, 20. Martin Roberts, 21. Andrew Bishop, 22. Tom James.
Wallabies: 15. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14. Peter Hynes, 13. Digby Ioane, 12. Quade Cooper, 11. Drew